Emerging Medical Technology

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Fig. 1 - Emerging Medical Technology Model[Source]

Virtual Experiments

Base Run

Fig. 2 - Simulation Run Results -1[Source]

What parameters can reproduce the Gartner Hype Cycle?


  • Homer JB (1983). A dynamic model for analyzing the emergence of new medical technologies. PhD Thesis, MIT Sloan School of Management (649 pages).
    • Jack presents a general theory of the emergence (adoption,modification, evolving use) of a new medical technology, including detailed application to cardiac pacemakers and the antibiotic drug clindamycin, as well

as policy analysis.

  • Homer JB (1987). A diffusion model with application to evolving medical technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 31(3):197-218.
  • Finkelstein S, Homer J, Sondik E (1984). Modeling the dynamics of decision-making for emerging medical technologies. R&D Management, 14(3):175-191.
Questions & Comments to Geoff McDonnell
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