Epidemics and Biosurveillance References

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(This is an interim list of reference material that also includes other simulation methods, which may help a volunteer to write up an encyclopaedic entry to precede a more organised and polished list of references)

The MIDAS project has some good info on epidemic modelling at http://www.epimodels.org/

Vicious and Virtuous Circles in the Dynamics of Infectious Disease and the Provision of Health Care: Gonorrhea in Britain as an Example Peter J White et al The Journal of Infectious Diseases 2005; 192 p 824-836

Business Dynamics Book chapter 9 p300-323 SIR Epidemics John D Sterman

Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models Hazhir Rahmandad hazhir@mit.edu, John Sterman jsterman@mit.edu MIT Sloan School of Management WP4512-04 Oct-04 http://esd.mit.edu/WPS/esd-wp-2004-05.pdf

Modeling Global Policy for Managing Polioviruses: An Analytical Journey Kimberly Thompson, Radboud Duintjer Tebbens ISDC2005 Boston

A Dynamic Model of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks: Learning from the Past to Help Inform the Future Duintjer Tebbens et al. Am. J. Epidemiol. (2005) 162: (4) p 358-372 http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/162/4/358

Evaluating epidemic intervention policies with systems thinking: a case study of dengue fever in Mexico
Syst. Dyn. Rev. 15,(2)p 119-138, (1999)

Optimisation as a statistical estimation tool: an example in estimating the AIDS treatment-free incubation period distribution Brian Dangerfield, Carole Roberts Syst. Dyn. Rev. 15,(3) p273-291, (1999)

Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy Brian C. Dangerfield, Yongxiang Fang, Carole A. Roberts http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/issuetoc?ID=84002123 Syst. Dyn. Rev. 17,(2)] p119–150, (2001)

A model of HIV transmission through needle sharing Homer JB., St. Clair CL Interfaces 1991 21(3): 26-49

Toward a dynamic theory of antibiotic resistance Jack Homer, James Ritchie-Dunham, Hal Rabbino, Luz Maria Puente, James Jorgensen, Kate Hendricks http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/76510015/START

Managing from Clarity: Identifying, Aligning and Leveraging Strategic Resources (Dengue in Mexico example) James L. Ritchie-Dunham and Hal T. Rabbino John Wiley and Sons Book 2001, ISBN 0-471-49731-2 http://www.strategic-clarity.com/book.htm

ling the Effect of Information Feedback on the SARS Epidemic in Beijing Geng Li ISDC2005 Boston http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2005/proceed/index.htm

Endogenous Human Behaviors in a Pneumonic Plague Simulation: Psychological and Behavioral Theories as Small “Generic” Models John Heinbokel, P. Jeffrey Potash ISDC2005 Boston http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2005/proceed/index.htm

AIDS Policy Modeling for the 21st Century: An Overview of Key Issues MARION S. RAUNER, MARGARET L. BRANDEAU Health Care Management Science 4, 165–180, 2001

"Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach" Joshua M. Epstein†? , Derek A. T. Cummings‡? , Shubha Chakravarty†?,Ramesh M. Singa‡? , and Donald S. Burke‡? "Center on Social and Economic Dynamics Working Paper No. 31 December 2002"

"Spatial Simulation Model for Infectious Viral Diseases with Focus on SARS and the Common Flu" Christoph Aschwanden Proceedings of the 37th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2004

Mathematical Models of Isolation and Quarantine Carlos Castillo-Chavez et al JAMA 2003,290,2876-7

"SIMULATION OF THE RISK OF ACQUIRING HIV FROM PARTNERS WITH COEXISTING HIV AND STD INFECTIONS" James G. Anderson, Ph.D.1, Marilyn M. Anderson, B.A.2, Devon Hensel, B.A. Jan, 7-20

Are you vMad to Go for Surgery? Risk Assessment for Transmission of vCJD via Surgical Instruments: The Contribution of System Dynamics ISDC2003 New York?

Modelling and Epidemic William Glass CLE D-4339 Teaching System Dynamics: Looking at Epidemics William Glass CLE D-4243-2

The Epidemic Game - Observations William Glass CLE D-4255

Microcomputer Based Policy Simulations of the AIDS Epidemic with STELLA and Professional DYNAMO David P Kreutzer D-3923

The Spread of '88 Shanghai type-A hepatitis: a system dynamics model and analysis Mao-Kang Su System Dynamics Review 1992, 8, 213-232

A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR ANALYSING POPULATION RISK IN CASE OF A VOLUNTARY VACCINATION PROGRAM AGAINST MENINGOCOCCAL MENINGITIS "Yolanda Álvarez Martín Caicoya Rafael García Begoña González-Busto"

Modelling of SARS for Hong Kong Pengliang Shi and Michael Small "Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (Dated: December 11, 2003)"

Vaccination Rates and the Prevalence of Hepatitis A in Remote Alaskan Villages "By Gary Kretchik University of Alaska, Anchorage School of Engineering"

Stock/Flow Models of Blood Donor Restrictions: Why the vCJD Problem is Worse than Expected ISDC2003 New York

Modeling the SARS Epidemic Chris Dye and Nigel Gay Communicable Diseases, World Health Organization E-mail: dyec@who.int

A System Dynamics Evaluation of SARS Preventing Policies in Taiwan Showing Young,Yu-Tang Lo, Shyh-Jane Li ISDC Oxford2004 young@cm.nsysu.edu.tw http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2004/indexpapers.htm

Epidemics CiSE Computers in Systems Engineering Articles http://csdl.computer.org/comp/mags/cs/2004/02/c2050abs.htm

Sensitivity Analysis of an Infectious Disease Model Rene LeClaire et al ISDC2005 Boston

The AIDS Epidemic: Integrating System Dynamics and Gaming for Strategic Simulation William Edgar, C. Lance Durham, Aparna Higgins ISDC2005 Boston http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2005/proceed/index.htm

SARS: What have we learned? Newsfeature Nature 424, 121 - 126 (10 July 2003); doi:10.1038/424121a

Influenza Decision Modelling HTA 2003 vol7 No35

Isolation Policies in MRSA HTA 2003 vol7 No39

Random vs. Nonrandom Mixing in Network Epidemic Models GREGORY S. ZARIC Health Care Management Science 5, 147–155, 2002

A Model of the Spread of HIV Infection and the Demographic Impact of AIDS John Bongaarts Statistics in Medicine 1989 8,103-120

Dynamic Models of the AIDS Epidemic David J Ahlgren and Alex C Stein Simulation 1990,

The geographic spread of influenza ERIC BONABEAU, LAURENT TOUBIANA, ANTOINE FLAHAULT Santa Fe Institute and INSERM

"Applying network theory to epidemics: Control measures for outbreaks of Mycoplasma pneumoniae" "Lauren W. Ancel1, M. E. J. Newman, Michael Martin, and Stephanie Schrag" The University of Houston, Santa Fe Institute & Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia"

Cost-effectiveness of Treatment for Chronic Hepatitis C Infection in an Evolving Patient Population Joshua A Salomon et al JAMA 2003,290,228-237

A Simulation to Evaluate Screening for Helicobacter Pylori Infection in the Prevention of Peptic Ulcers and Gastric Cancers RUTH DAVIES et al Health Care Management Science 5, 249–258, 2002

Mathematical Modelling: a tool for hospital infection control H Grundmann, B Hellnegel Lancet Infect Dis 2006;6:39-45 http://infection.thelancet.com

Townshend JRP, Turner HS. Analysing the effectiveness of Chlamydia screening. J Operat Res Soc. 2000;51:812–824

Effects of Behavioral Changes in a Smallpox Attack Model. S. Del Valle, H. Hethcote, J. M. Hyman, and C. Castillo-Chavez. Mathematical Biosciences 195 (2005) 228-251.

IBM STEM SpatioTemporal Epidemiological Modeler http://www.alphaworks.ibm.com/tech/stem

Questions & Comments to Geoff McDonnell
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