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Escalation Systems Archetype
From SystemsWiki
Have you ever wondered how the apparently sensible actions by two individuals or groups, or countries for that matter, can result in both parties finding themselves where neither of them wants to be? Consider the way an argument heats up between two people, or the urgency begets urgency, or even the US/Soviet arms race of the past. The foundation of these activities is an escalation structure.
Contents |
[edit] Causal Loop Diagram
An escalation structure is composed of two Balancing Loops which interact in such a way as to create a single Reinforcing Loop. The action of each loop provides the basis for increased action by the other loop, and the real foundation for this is insecurity resulting in competition. Consider the example of Fig. 1.
If Tom and Anne's results are the same then better results of Anne relative to Tom will be zero and nothing happens. Yet if we consider the case where Anne's results are actually better than Tom's results these will interact in such a way that the better results of Anne relative to Tom, because of Tom's insecurity, adds to the perceived threat to Tom. This perceived threat to Tom adds to the actions by Tom to add to Tom's results. Tom's results then subtract from the better results of Anne relative to Tom.
Now that Tom's results have decreased the better results of Anne relative to Tom this subtracts less from the threat to Anne. This is actually a double negative which Anne perceives as an increased threat. The threat to Anne adds more to the action by Anne to add more to Anne's results. This finally adds more to the better results of Anne relative to Tom, which adds to the threat to Tom and we're going round the first loop again.
These two Balancing Loops interact like a figure eight to produce a single Reinforcing Loop. This is immediately evident in the redrawn structure below.
[edit] Stock & Flow Diagram
Fig. 3 is a generic Stock & Flow Diagram for the Escalation Systems Archetype presented in Fig. 1.
The Balancing Loop (B1) attempts to attain Ted's Results and the Balancing Loop (B2) attempts to attain Current State. The difficulty results from the the manner in which these two Balancing Loops combine to create a single Reinforcing Loop (R3). % change factor and ted factor were simply added as scaling factors.
[edit] Simulation
Fig. 4 represents the implementation of the Escalation Systems Archetype in Simgua.
If you run this model with Teds Results and Current State equal then nothing happens as is depicted in Fig. 5.
Though if for some reason Teds Results and Current State are not equal the structure presents an escalation as depicted in Fig. 6 where the model was run with Current State = 90 and Teds Results = 100.
Click Escalation to run this model in your web browser.
[edit] Effective Strategies
- One approach is to disconnect the two loops so Anne and Ted are no longer competing with each other but competing with themselves. This produces two reinforcing loops.
- The second approach is to begin evaluating the composite results of Anne and Ted rather than your individual results. In this way they begin to see the value in cooperation rather than competition and the structure turns into two synergistic reinforcing loops.
[edit] Areas of Concern
- There are currently no known Systems Archetypes which are derivatives of the Escalation Systems Archetype.
[edit] Examples
[edit] References
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