Producing Health Consuming Health Care Steady State Model

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Model

To distinguish between cured or die in care we add a stock of healthy people, so we have three stocks. This simple steady state model, like the paper, ignores population changes due to ageing, births and deaths. The details of population dynamics are left to a subsequent section

Fig. 1 - Steady State Model [Source]

We express the flow rates as fractions of stocks per year and display the output as the fraction of the population who are in the three (steady) states. This will be different depending on the pattern of disease and healthcare in different countries.

Virtual Experiments

This generates a steady state graph

Fig. 2 - Simulation Run Results -1 [Source]

A reduction in cure fraction to 0.1 (chronic disease)

Fig. 3 - Simulation Run Results -2 [Source]

Plus a growth in care fraction due to a growth in services

Fig. 4 - Simulation Run Results -3 [Source]

Plus a growth in incidence due to defining new conditions in terms of positive tests rather than symptoms

Fig. 5 - Simulation Run Results -4 [Source]
Questions & Comments to Geoff McDonnell
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