Project Management: Believing in Lies

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There are numerous ways to classify projects. The classification I would like to consider has to do with repeated familiarity. There are those projects which one repeatedly undertakes which are relatively the same, and then there are those projects which are unique one of a kind events. Unique in that the person or group tasked with their accomplishment has never undertaken a project of this nature in the past, and is not likely to undertake again in the future.

For those projects which one repeatedly undertakes a level of expertise is developed and one gets better at planning and executing these projects. As one's expertise develops it is expected that the planning and execution of these repeated similar projects become more and more accurate. Accurate in that the plan and actual execution become more closely in agreement. Things should happen pretty much as planned.

For those unique one of a kind projects there is little basis for developing a realistic plan, even with the best of intent. The project plan is at best an educated guess. An educated guess that can be improved upon by capitalizing on the expertise of others that have been previously involved in projects of this nature. And yet, there are many projects for which there exists no similar requisite expertise. As such, the project plan remains very much simply ones conscientious best guess at what needs to be done. This is represented by the Causal Loop Diagram inf Fig. 1 which is a standard Balancing Loop (B1).

Fig. 1 - Initial Project Completion Model

This type of project begins with everyone realizing that the project plan is little more than an educated guess. And yet somewhere along the way, as the project gets underway, people begin to lose sight of the fact that the project plan was just an educated guess. As the project progresses there remains less and less awareness regarding the non-reality of the project plan. Individuals begin to take the plan as gospel believing that it is an accurate projection of what is going to happen.

As individuals pursue implementation of the project they begin to learn more and more about what they didn't know when they started, and they begin doing revisions to the project plan. Revisions which seldom represent decreases in cost or time. When this happens the individuals that lost sight of the fact that the plan was little more than a guess consider that the project is lagging behind schedule and experiencing cost overruns. So, of course what is happening is considered to adversely reflect on the capabilities of those responsible for the project implementation. This is depicted in Fig. 2 as a standard Reinforcing Loop (R2) added to Fig. 1.

Fig. 2 - New Experience Adds Time & Cost [pmbil.msys]

At this point even the individuals responsible for development of the project plan and its implementation have lost sight of the initial understanding that the project plan was little more than an educated guess. The individuals involved begin to believe management derision and perceive they are simply not able to implement the plan. So they begin to cut corners attempting to drive the implementation in accordance with the plan as written. And when the project is coerced in this fashion the implemented result seldom lives up to its expectations.

The final result is a completed project that seldom accomplishes what was intended. The individuals involved in the project have depressed impressions of their own capabilities. And management probably has an unfavorable impression of the individuals responsible for execution of a plan that resulted in a less than expected result, in a time frame longer than predicted, and costing more than projected. The system has discounted itself because of its own ignorance and short term memory. This is the foundation of a viscious cycle.

References

Additional Resources
Systems Thinking in Action Discussions * Gene Bellinger
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