Simulation Methods

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Contents

General Simulation

Social Simulation Theory and PracticeProfs Gilbert & Troitzsch Auckland Feb 2006

Working ideas, insights for systems modelling; the broader community of systems thinkers Michael Pidd, Peter Checkland, John Morecroft Plenary Session, ISDC2004 Oxford http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2004/SDS_2004/PAPERS/092CHECK.pdf

Advancing the Art of Simulation in the Social Sciences Robert Axelrod UMICH Aug2003
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~axe/research/AdvancingArtSim2003.pdf

Relevance, Realism and Rigour: A Third Way for Social and Economic Research Scott Moss Professor of Social Simulation Centre for Policy Modelling Manchester Metropolitan University http://cfpm.org/~scott/inaugural/inaugural.pdf

Shaping the Next 100 years: Quantitative Long Term Policy Analysis Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes Book, RAND PARDEE CENTER http://www.rand.org/pardee/pubs/index.html

Contributions to the epistemology of modelling Leonhard Meirer et al http://www.complexityscience.org/NoE/epistemoloyofmodelling.pdf

Abduction? Deduction? Induction? Is there a Logic of Exploratory Data Analysis? Yu, Chong Ho http://seamonkey.ed.asu.edu/~alex/pub/Peirce/Logic_of_EDA.html

Simulation Research Methods K Dooley Companion to Organizations, Joel Baum (ed.) (2002) London Blackwell p829-848 http://www.eas.asu.edu/~kdooley/index.html

Society for Computer Simulation http://www.scs.org

Is Simulation Better than Experience Bertsche D, Crawford C, Macadam SE McKinsey Quarterly 1996 (1) 50-57

System Dynamics Methods

Statistical screening of system dynamics models Andrew Ford, Hilary Flynn Syst. Dyn. Rev. 21, 273–303, (2005) http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/112410796/ABSTRACT

Levels of Confidence in System Dynamics Modeling: A Pragmatic Approach to Assessment of Dynamic Models, by Aldo Zagonel, Thomas Corbet http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2006/TentSched1.htm

Agent Based Simulation

See also Emergent System Dynamics for Health Agent based Modeling, Multiscale Modeling and Complex Adaptive Systems

Discrete Event Simulation

Explaining Puzzling Dynamics: Comparing the Use of System Dynamics and Discrete-Event Simulation John Morecroft, Stewart Robinson ISDC2005 Boston http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2005/proceed/papers/MOREC107.pdf

Media:Morecroft.ITM ithink SD example in Morecroft paper(by Mark Heffernan)

System Simulation DES Professor Hossein Arsham U.BAltimore Website http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/simulation/sim.htm

Discrete-Event System Simulation Banks J, Carson JS, Nelson BL, Nichol DM 3rd Edition Pearson Education 2001 ISBN 81-7808-505-4 http://www.bcnn.net

GPSS Turns 40 : Selected Perspective Thomas J Schriber et al Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference pp565-576

Towards incorporating human behaviour in models of health care systems DES Sally Brailsford and Bernd Schmidt EJOR 2003 150 19-31

Post-Autistic Economics

Econometric Methods

(especially compared with SD)

A Skeptic's Guide to Computer Models John D Sterman In Barney, G. O. et al. (eds.), Managing a Nation: The Microcomputer Software Catalog. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 209-229 (1991).

The Unavoidable a Priori Donella Meadows D-4880 MIT D-memo

The Electronic Oracle: Computer Models and Social Decisions Meadows DH, Robinson JM Book 1985 Wiley: Chichester, UK. also System Dynamics Review Special Issue 2002 (2) p271-308

Quantitative Modelling at the Productivity Commission by Dr. Philipa Dee, Australia

Visualization

VISUALIZATION METHODS FOR TIME-DEPENDENT DATA - AN OVERVIEW Wolfgang Müller and Heidrun Schumann Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference S. Chick, P. J. Sánchez, D. Ferrin, and D. J. Morrice, eds.WSC 2003 p737-745

Wintersim Conference http://www.wintersim.org/

Verification and Validation

Verification and Validation of Simulation Models Robert G. Sargent (Syracuse University) Advanced Tutorial WinterSim 2005 http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc05papers/014.pdf

Explaining Validation Discussion from the SD List March 1.2006

Health Simulation

A TUTORIAL ON SIMULATION IN HEALTH CARE: APPLICATIONS AND ISSUES Charles R. Standridge Proceedings of the 1999 Winter Simulation Conference

International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation James Anderson http://www.sla.purdue.edu/academic/soc/andersonj/anderson.html

Systematic review of the use and value of computer simulation modelling in population health and health care delivery Fone D, Hollinghurst S, Temple M, Round A, Lester N, Weightman A, et al. Journal of Public Health Medicine 2003;25(4):325-335.

Complex Systems

Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems Science Review http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/317/5844/1513?rss=1

See also Emergent System Dynamics for Agent based Modeling and Complex Adaptive Systems

Methods and Techniques of Complex Systems Science: An Overview Cosma Rohilla Shalizi Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan2003 http://arxiv.org/abs/nlin.AO/0307015

NECSI - forum : http://www.necsi.org/community/forum and - wiki: http://www.necsi.org/community/wiki

Embodied Embedded Cognition http://www.nici.ru.nl/~haselag/div/references.html

(Insert Goldstein Bechtel Diagram at top of the page)

Link to Peter Vanderminden's ISDC2006 Talk:

http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2006/proceed/supp/140.pdf

Discrete Choice Methods

Using stated preference discrete choice modeling to evaluate health care programs Jane Hall, Rosalie Viney, Marion Haas, Jordan Louviere Journal of Business Research 5760 (2002) 1– 7 Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation http://www.chere.uts.edu.au/

Discrete Choice Experiments in Health Care Mandy Ryan BMJ Ed 2004, 328, 360-1

Patients’ preferences for the management of non-metastatic prostate cancer: discrete choice experiment Mark Sculpher, Stirling Bryan, Pat Fry, Patricia de Winter, Heather Payne, Mark Emberton BMJ, doi:10.1136/bmj.37972.497234.44 (published 29 January 2004)

Daniel McFadden Economics Nobel Prize 2000 http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/mcfadden/

Ken Train http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~train/

Jordan Louviere http://datasearch.uts.edu.au/chere/staff/StaffDetails.cfm?StaffId=158&NumRecords=1

Microsimulation

International Microsimulation Association

Social Modelling and Public Policy:What is microsimulation modelling and how is it being used? Laurie Brown and Ann Harding NATSEM 2002 http://www.natsem.canberra.edu.au

Behavioral microsimulation from SIMSOC List Edmund Chattoe Mar 7.2006

Cost Effectiveness

WHO CHOICE Cost Effectiveness http://www3.who.int/whosis/cea

Medical Decisions

Quantifying uncertainty in medical decisions Robert S Dittus et al JACC 1989 14 23A-28A

Markov models in Medical Decision Making Frank A Sonnenberg and J Robert Beck Medical Decision Making 1993 ,13,322-338

Simulation modelling and Health-care decision making: annotated bibliography Robert W Klein et al Medical Decision Making 1993 ,13,347-354

Use of formal methods in Medical Decision Making Ulf Bockenholt and Elke U Weber Medical Decision Making 1992 ,12,298-306

Optimization

PRACTICAL INTRODUCTION TO SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION Jay April, Fred Glover, James P. Kelly, Manuel Laguna Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference S. Chick, P. J. Sánchez, D. Ferrin, and D. J. Morrice, eds.WSC 2003 p71-78

HEALTHCARE SIMULATION MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION USING MEDMODEL Deborah L. Heflin Charles R. Harrell Proceedings of the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference, p185-9

Social Network Analysis

Dynamic Networks and SNA Referencesin Computer Science and Computational Sociology

Social Network Analysis Software

International Network for Social Network Analysis

Introduction to Social Network Methods Hanneman and Riddle

Miscellaneous

Attempt to Integrate System Dynamics and UML in Business Process Modeling Liang-Cheng Chang, Yi-Ming Tu ISDC2005 Boston http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2005/proceed/index.htm

Questions & Comments to Geoff McDonnell
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