System Dynamics
From SystemsWiki
System Dynamics is a rigorous methodology employing the development and use of formal computer models that:
- Apply the accepted system dynamics theory of structure (endogenous behavior, feedback loops, accumulations and delays, representation of decision-making);
- Are constructed following the scientific method (reference mode of problem behavior, dynamic hypothesis, formal model, testing of the hypothesis against data, extensive analysis, and policy design); and
- Use best practice tools and techniques (system dynamics software, units checking, standard formulations, generic models and building blocks, graphical functions, etc.).
These three components collectively define rigorous system dynamics. Further, in real world applications:
- Models should be developed so as to achieve client confidence and acceptance (using various approaches including “group model building”).
System Dynamics is not:
- Stella modeling or Vensim modeling (i.e., any model that uses “system dynamics software,” for example only as a programming, graphing or spreadsheet application without system dynamics theory or method.);
- nor is it “systems thinking” (i.e., qualitative modeling uninformed by quantitative modeling).
While software packages and the tools of feedback systems thinking (causal diagrams, archetypes, mental simulation) are used in System Dynamics, they are only tools to help develop, use, and explain the results of formal computer models. This is not to suggest that people should not “do” systems thinking, or use the software for whatever they like; nor is it a suggestion there is not value in their uses; it's just not System Dynamics.
This piece was adapted from Developing a Society Strategy to Promote Growth of the Field, the Presidential Address given by James M. Lyneis at the 2008 Systems Dynamics Society Conference in Athens, Greece.
References
- System Dynamics Methodology
- System Dynamics. Wikipedia.
- The Prophet of Unintended Consequences an article on Jay Forrester by Lawrence M. Fisher
- What is System Dynamics Center for Interdisciplinary Excellence in System Dynamics
- Kirkwood, Craig (2005) Arizona State University
- Theory and Practical Exercises of System Dynamics
- System Dynamics Resources Page
- Why and How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help Policymakers: A Review of Two Public Policy Models by Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis, George P. Richardson
- Urban Insight and
- Swamping Insight from the above paper
- Road Maps (Stella/Vensim)
- Guided Study (Vensim, 30 assignments)
- A dynamic synthesis of basic macroeconomic theory : implications for stabilization policy analysis a Ph.D. Thesis by Nathan Blair Forrester
- System Dynamics Self Study An MIT Program
- System Dynamics and K-12 Teachers by Jay W. Forrester
- Why System Dynamics? by Richard Turnock
- Intellectual Roots and Philosophy of System Dynamics by Willard R. Fey
- Introduction to System Dynamics U.S. Department of Energy by Michael J. Radzicki an Robert A. Taylor
- Graphical Introduction to System Dynamics a Prezi by Jim Berger
- System Dynamics and K-12 Teachers by Jay W. Forrester
- System Dynamics: A Field of Study, A Methodology or Both? by Pater Vandermiden
- System Dynamics: the Foundation Under Systems Thinking by Jay W. Forrester
- System Dynamics: The Next Fifty Years by Jay W. Forrester
- System Dynamics/Systems Thinking: Let's Just Get On With It by Barry Richmond
- Learning from Evidence in a Complex World by John D. Sterman
- Reflections on the foundations of system dynamics by George P. Richardson
- On the Foundations of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics - Dee Down, What Are We Really Doing? Presentation by George P. Richardson
Questions & Comments to Gene Bellinger |
The Kokua License - Copyright (c) 1975...2017 Systems Thinking World Inc Permission is hereby granted to freely exploit this content in any way by anyone for any purpose, without warranty of any kind. Attribution is appreciated, but not required. |